PRIDE
Responsible:
PRIN (Relevant National Interest Projects)
DEIB Role: Coordinator
Start date: 2023-09-28
Length: 24 months
Project abstract
Infections due to antibiotic-resistant bacteria are among the leading causes of death worldwide for people of all ages. Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) is therefore a topical global challenge that requires joint and synergistic action by experts in different fields. As highlighted by the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical models are critical to help prevent, predict, and control the spread of infectious diseases. Therefore, new mathematical models of antimicrobial resistance that capture phenomena at different scales and account for their uncertainties and variability are needed.
The PRIDE (Proliferation, Resistance and Infection Dynamics in Epidemics) project aims to develop new mathematical models at different scales to represent the dynamic evolution of antimicrobial resistance and promote its prevention and control (administration, discontinuation, and timing of antibiotic therapy). Specifically, the model will consist of several interacting levels that take into account both the dynamics within the individual patient and the interaction between individuals and the environment. The model layers within individuals will capture the emergence of antimicrobial resistance in bacteria, due to mutation and selection under intense antibiotic exposure, and its spread in bacterial populations by horizontal transfer. In contrast, the between-host model layers will describe the contagion between individuals, focusing on the hospital environment, transmission between hospitals and the entire community.
PRIDE will integrate compartmental, both deterministic and stochastic models to describe mutation, selection, and transfer of resistant genes, as well as contagion and spread of infection. As an original and distinguishing feature, the models developed will be control-oriented: in addition to providing a deeper insight into the spread of AMR in individual patients and among individuals, the models will enable the design of advanced control strategies for optimal AMR prevention. To verify the accuracy of the models, parameter estimation, and the effectiveness of the designed algorithms, we plan to use data currently available in aggregate form from the Policlinico San Matteo in Pavia.
The PRIDE (Proliferation, Resistance and Infection Dynamics in Epidemics) project aims to develop new mathematical models at different scales to represent the dynamic evolution of antimicrobial resistance and promote its prevention and control (administration, discontinuation, and timing of antibiotic therapy). Specifically, the model will consist of several interacting levels that take into account both the dynamics within the individual patient and the interaction between individuals and the environment. The model layers within individuals will capture the emergence of antimicrobial resistance in bacteria, due to mutation and selection under intense antibiotic exposure, and its spread in bacterial populations by horizontal transfer. In contrast, the between-host model layers will describe the contagion between individuals, focusing on the hospital environment, transmission between hospitals and the entire community.
PRIDE will integrate compartmental, both deterministic and stochastic models to describe mutation, selection, and transfer of resistant genes, as well as contagion and spread of infection. As an original and distinguishing feature, the models developed will be control-oriented: in addition to providing a deeper insight into the spread of AMR in individual patients and among individuals, the models will enable the design of advanced control strategies for optimal AMR prevention. To verify the accuracy of the models, parameter estimation, and the effectiveness of the designed algorithms, we plan to use data currently available in aggregate form from the Policlinico San Matteo in Pavia.
