Large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) are transforming rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, often with mixed consequences for local communities. These transnational investments, fueled by rising global demands for food, water, and energy, are displacing smallholder farming and natural ecosystems with large-scale commercial agriculture. While these changes significantly impact local food, water, and environmental systems, the ways in which these socio-environmental dimensions interact to shape household well-being remain inadequately understood. 

This talk presents a global analysis of a new database of over 400 georeferenced land deals, linked to household dietary data from more than 84,000 children across 28 countries. Using a clustering algorithm, we classify land deals into archetypes defined by their cross-sectoral trade-offs, revealing distinct pathways of impact. For example, deals intensifying production under physical water scarcity often lead to declines in dietary diversity due to reduced availability of nutrient-dense foods. Conversely, investments that alleviate economic water scarcity or enhance opportunities in intensive agricultural regions show potential to improve food security.

Our findings highlight the importance of policies that are tailored to the specific trade-offs associated with different archetypes of land deals. By recognizing and addressing these diverse impacts, policymakers can better regulate transnational land investments to minimize harm and promote sustainable and equitable outcomes for rural populations.

Register here to attend the seminar.

Dr. Marc F. Müller leads a research group on Coupled Human Water Systems at Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology near Zurich. With an educational background from EPFL, UC Berkeley, and Stanford University, he previously served as an Associate Professor at the University of Notre Dame (USA) where he maintains an affiliation. His research on the dynamics of water-human interactions in regions that are both data-scarce and rapidly changing was recognized by fellowships from various institutions, such as the US Department of State (Fulbright program) and the Swiss and US National Science Foundations, with an Early Career Faculty Award obtained in 2022. Dr. Müller actively seeks to bridge the divide between research and policy, recently contributing to high-level dialogues at venues including the United Nations and the Swiss Embassy in Washington, DC. He serves as an Associate Research Professor at the United Nations University’s Institute for Water, Environment and Health.