Scenarios help assess future uncertainties and guide adaptive management, but traditional "top down" approaches using few prespecified scenarios risk missing important dynamics and stakeholder impacts. While "bottom up" methods using large scenario ensembles provide more rigorous uncertainty exploration, they often struggle to provide actionable insights. This talk introduces the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced “forensic”), bridging these approaches by using hierarchical classification to identify key storylines within broad scenario ensembles. I will discuss past and current work on the Upper Colorado River Basin, in the USA, and demonstrate how FRNSIC can be used to examine drought impacts on water users and the broader region.

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Antonia Hadjimichael is an interdisciplinary scientist studying complex human-Earth systems, specifically in the domain of water and planning under uncertainty. She completed her studies in the UK and Spain, and holds a BSc in Mathematics, a MSc in Environmental Modeling, and a PhD in Water Science and Technology. She is currently an Assistant Professor at Penn State University and serves in the leadership teams for the Society for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty and the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice.